This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Milwaukee that is going to be the previous UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We are back to having smaller prize pools for this particular event but there’s still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance using $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a wonderful high prize are always my favorite competitions to pursue so I will be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs through the week and I will find a fantastic quantity of play in games. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is almost always the best fight to get into money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round fight usually makes a lot of sense. I believe that you can stack the main event here too, but I believe Kevin Lee is the must drama of the two. He’s a -335 favorite and -135 ITD so if he wins he is going to score highly and according to Vegas he’s a 77% probability of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he even have a high floor, but he probably has the maximum ceiling on the card as well. That is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup this week.
GPP play of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a great deal of cash come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is virtually a PK fight on the betting odds today. Usually when that occurs we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and also the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s possession will go down due to this and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes in the maximum rate on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He doesn’t even need a finish to score 100+ points and that’s why I enjoy him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he must score well.
Underdog drama of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is just +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I adore the value we’re getting there, and I believe Rodriguez wins this battle. I really do expect him to become among the very popular underdogs on the card, but it’s chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it’s likely going to be by knockout so not just could he have the win, but he’d score highly too. I believe if he can win this battle he then ends up on the 1st area lineup and he’s my favourite underdog of this week for that reason.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I’m not fading Klose because I think he loses, I am really picking him to win a Unanimous Conclusion. I am fading him since he’s $9.3k and with his fighting style I don’t see him becoming over 10x that wages. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus much in his profession and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. When he scores around this region again in this particular fight, then that pretty much kills your odds at winning a GPP as the other guys in that $9k range probably score higher and likely even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each fight, my personal approaches & suggestions, and also my selection outlook for every single fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the previous 7 weeks!)

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